Hillary Clinton’s increasingly confident campaign has warned against complacency, as new poll numbers suggested Donald Trump may drag Republicans into a rout in just over two weeks time.

In the final days after their televised debates, the candidates have adopted starkly different tactics to reach the more than 200 million Americans who have registered to vote in the election.

While Trump has doubled down with raucous swing state rallies that some have compared to a rock music tour, Clinton is spending heavily on TV advertising and local organising, with an eye toward states in once safely Republican territory.

The strategy could take the candidate well past the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House, and marks a turn to helping other Democrats win back control of Congress.

Speaking at a rally in Orlando, Florida on Sunday night, Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine said data from early voting states suggested Clinton was headed toward a “very big and historic win” on 8 November.

However, Clinton campaign aides insisted they had not discounted the risk that Trump could benefit from an unpredictable 2016 electorate, especially in swing states like Ohio where polling remains tight.

“These battleground states are called that for a reason,” her campaign manager, Robby Mook, told CNN on Sunday. “They are going to be incredibly close. We don’t want to get ahead of our skis here. We are just as focused on Ohio, Iowa, Florida as we have ever been.”

Trump advisers acknowledge they are facing an uphill battle, but maintain the country’s anti-establishment mood will work in their favour in the final few days.

“We are behind,” campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told NBC. “She has some advantages, like $66m in ad buys just in the month of September. She has a former president, happens to be her husband, campaigning for her, and she’s seen as the incumbent.”