Poland’s inflation is expected to fall further, but at a slower pace than to date, the central bank’s governor, Adam Glapinski, has said.
“Inflation will still be decreasing in Poland, but its further decline will be slower than to ate,” Glapinski said at a press conference on Thursday, the day after the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, leaving the reference rate at 5.75 percent.
“The inflation target (of 2.5 pct +/- 1 percentage point – PAP) is to be reached not sooner than at the end of 2025, which means that the horizon of bringing inflation back to its target has not been changed significantly since July, despite reducing interest rates by a total of 1 percentage (point – PAP),” he added.
The central bank’s governor stressed that uncertainty about the further pace of disinflation supported the decision to put interest rate cuts on hold in November. At the same time, Glapinski said that the next inflation projection to be released in March will be of key importance in this context.
“Had it not been for the elections or the war in the Middle East, the cuts would have been continued at this sitting, and maybe the next one,” Glapinski said, listing reasons that had caused the uncertainty.
Poland held general elections on October 15, which likely put an end to the eight-year rule of the incumbent ruling party, the socially-conservative Law and Justice (PiS). Despite winning the elections, PiS failed to secure enough seats in parliament for a ruling majority while opposition parties have agreed to form a new, central-liberal government.
After its Wednesday decision, the MPC argued that it had kept interest rates unchanged due to uncertainty about the future course of fiscal and regulatory policies and their impact on inflation.
At end-October, Poland’s stats office, GUS, released a flash estimate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showing a 6.5-percent year-on-year increase in consumer prices in October.