Rafał Guz/PAP

Poland’s population could fall to 30.4 million by 2060, according to a 2023-2060 demographic forecast, published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).

GUS puts the current Polish population at 37.7 million, although the actual number of people living in Poland could be higher owing to a large number of foreigners, such as refugees from Ukraine.

“The results of the ‘Population projection 2023–2060’ indicate a sharp population decline by 2060,” GUS wrote. “In the main scenario, a decrease to 30.4 million people is expected but in alternative scenarios it could fall to 26.7 million (worst-case scenario) and 34.8 million (best-case scenario).”

This will deduce Poland’s pool of working age population.

It could fall from the 22.17 million workers the country boasted in 2022 to 13.3 million in the worst scenario, 15.1 in the middle case or 16.5 in the best-case scenario, GUS said.

“As a consequence the age dependency ratio will increase,” GUS warned. “In 2022, for every 100 people of working age… there were 70 people of non-working age. By 2060, there will be 105 people of non-working age (according to the middle scenario).”

Poland is also expected to suffer from a “significant” decline in the number of births, caused mainly by a decrease in the number of women in the reproductive age, GUS added.

Immigration is expected to increase markedly. “In the medium and high scenarios, Poland will be an immigration country throughout the projection horizon, that is, from 2023 until 2060 a positive net migration will be maintained,” GUS said.