"In the entire 2023 year, Poland's economy will grow by 1.2 percent year on year," the PIE experts wrote.
Jakub Kaczmarczyk/PAP

Poland’s GDP will shrink by 0.3 percent in Q1 2023 but will grow by 1.2 percent year on year in the entire year, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a government think-tank, said on Monday.

“Polish economic growth decreased from 8.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2022 to 3.6 percent in the third quarter,” PIE experts wrote adding that the growth of both consumption and investments was very weak.

According to PIE, economic activity will be stronger in H2 2023, with GDP expanding by 1.3 percent in Q3 and 2.5 percent in Q4.

“In the entire 2023 year, Poland’s economy will grow by 1.2 percent year on year,” the PIE experts wrote.

Inflation is likely to exceed 20 percent in February 2023 because of the restoration of VAT on electricity, fuels and natural gas, but will start going down in March to fall to around 8 percent at the end of the year.

PIE experts believe that economic slowdown will cause a slight unemployment increase of up to around 5.6-6.0 percent.

According to GUS, Poland’s unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in October 2022. The Labour Ministry expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.1 percent in November.