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Poland’s inflation to reach 4.9 pct this year central bank says

Rafał Guz/PAP

Inflation in Poland will increase to 4.9 percent in 2021 but GDP will rise to 5.3 percent, according to the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) November forecast.

In its monthly Inflation Report, the NBP also said inflation will grow even more, to 5.8 percent, in 2022 and will decline to 3.6 percent in 2023.

GDP growth will remain strong, but will decrease compared to 2021’s 5.3 percent, and will reach 4.9 percent in both 2022 and 2023, the NBP said.

Last week, the NBP’s Monetary Policy Council raised the reference interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, exceeding market expectations, to 1.25 percent. A month earlier, the Council reversed its low interest rate policy with an increase of 0.4 percent in the main interest rate, the first hike in years.

The official CPI inflation reading by the Central Statistical Office for September was 5.9 percent, more than double the NBP’s official target of 2.5 percent. But in a flash estimate for October, the inflation was seen even higher, at 6.8 percent. 

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