A report commissioned by HSBC has forecast that Poland’s service exports will grow by seven percent a year during 2016-2030, while projecting that Brexit will damage exports. The December 2016 report, produced by Oxford Economics on behalf of HSBC, included a service exports forecast, which was published for the first time.
Services currently account for roughly a fifth of Poland’s overall exports.
Sebastian Szaudel, the director of corporate banking in HSBC Poland, said that this predicted growth “is related to the important role which Poland plays in the supply chains of German firms and in the flow of goods from the east to Western Europe”.
Poland is also expected to benefit from “near-shoring”, a form of outsourcing by more developed countries but specifically to nearby countries, which brings benefits such as small difference in time zones.
Meanwhile Polish goods exports are forecast to grow by around five percent per annum between 2016 and 2030, with the most rapid growth seen in the ICT equipment sector.
HSBC considered an alternative scenario for world trade, under which the UK undertakes a “hard” Brexit and leaves the EU’s single market, while incoming US President Donald Trump implements protectionist policies.
The UK currently accounts for seven percent of Polish exports. HSBC predicts damage to Poland’s exports in the immediate aftermath of a hard Brexit.
However the report writes that in the longer run, “Polish exporters would be likely to refocus their efforts on strengthening trade ties with other EU countries in the aftermath of a hard Brexit.”
HSBC forecasts that by 2030 Polish exports in a hard Brexit scenario would be just one percent smaller than the baseline projection.