The war in Ukraine has far-reaching consequences for the international balance of power as Russia’s failure, should it come about, may show China that Moscow is not a valuable ally, which is something the U.S. has been trying to achieve for years, said TVP World’s guest Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski from the Jagiellonian Club of the University of Łódź.
Russia and China have expanded trade and defence ties over the past decade but they are not formalised with experts saying Russia’s war in Ukraine could be a turning point in the relationship.
“China is perceived by the U.S. as the main global competitor… this is a political fact. The Americans are focused on that competition and Russia, on a large scale is perceived as China’s ally. This is the problem. The main goal, for many years, was to detach Russia from China, to deprive Beijing of this kind of an ally that Russia was”, Mr Żurawski vel Grajewski said.
TVP World’s guest said that it could be achieved by convincing Russia “to resign from the alliance with China” and to remain neutral in the U.S.-Chinese confrontation.
Having said that it could take the form of a reset in U.S.-Russia relations. Mr Żurawski vel Grajewski recalled some previous American attempts to reboot relations with Russia, including the “infamous” case of U.S. president at that time George W. Bush Jr. who had seen “a true democrat in Putin’s eyes” or President Joe Biden’s meeting with Putin. TVP World’s guest said that all these attempts were made “to a large extent at the cost of Central-Eastern Europe.”
“This compromise with Russia must be based on some kind of recognition of the Russian zone of influence in our part of Europe,” the scholar reasoned. “The outbreak of the Ukrainian war showed everybody that there is another way to deprive China of the Russian ally, namely, to beat Russia with the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. We just have to arm Ukraine to a [sufficient] level to defeat Russia. Thus, China would be deprived of the ally due to the fact that it’d be too weak to be an effective ally.”
TVP World’s guest also described a hypothesis that Russia could ally with U.S. as “entirely wishful thinking”.
“The entire Russian political culture speaks against this scenario,” he said.
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