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Polish economy to shrink further in Q 4 says think-tank

Polish GDP growth will slow to around 1.0-1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a government think-tank, said on Tuesday in reaction to the latest figures from the Central Statistical Office (GUS).

Poland is currently battling an inflation rate that hit 17.9 percent last month while having to contend with a general slump in economic activity across Europe.

GUS reported on Tuesday that GDP grew by 3.5 percent year on year in the third quarter against 5.8 percent in the second and 8.5 percent in the first.

“We predict that in the fourth quarter growth will slow to around 1.0-1.5 percent,” said PIE economists.

“The activity of industrial enterprises will be weaker due to lower foreign demand and the problems of energy-intensive sectors,” they added.

According to the think-tank, the contraction of the Polish economy will continue next year.

“We expect weaker results both in the coming months and in the first half of the year,” PIE experts said, adding that the bottom of the slowdown will fall in the first quarter of next year.”

According to PIE, household spending will grow moderately whereas public spending will grow faster as the result of investments made by industrial companies to reduce energy consumption.

The economists also said that the foreign trade balance will weigh negatively on GDP results, and added that they expect Poland’s economic growth in the whole of 2023 to be close to 1.5 percent.

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