The 20th Communist Party Congress has taken place, and Xi made his announcement regarding China’s policy, positions and focus going forward. Professor Marcin Grabowski of the Institute of Political Science and International Relations of Jagiellonian University in Kraków, joined TVP World to analyse the speech.
Many of the rhetoric coming from the chairman of the comminist party was as expected, however, Professor Grabowski drew attention to Xi Jinping’s tendency to interpret commonly recognised failures as successes, citing Xi’s zero-Covid policy that drove the country into civil unrest and sunken GDP to decades low as the most prominent example.
China’s goal of reunification was another example raised. Xi professed the success of the ‘one country, two systems’ policy implemented in Hong Kong, while at the same time, blatantly encroaching on Hong Kong’s autonomy. This further pushed Taiwan into the direction of stressing retaining its sovereignty, and electing an independence-leaning government as a result.
When asked about the Chinese response to Taiwan’s independence rhetoric, the professor expected rather milder action compared to Xi’s words, as there are too many elements tying his hands.
The US response going forward will be key in the conflict between the straits. President Biden has made an extraordinary stance in strong support of Taiwan, even disregarding the statements that the White House had later to walk back. The US has proven by their support of Ukraine that even without direct involvement, they are able to deal a serious blow.
Xi made no mention of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Professor Grabowski found it surprising at first. But upon reflection, he figured that it adhered to logic. His impression is that China does not want to reflect on the issues that are not convenient to them. that the west is indeed capable of supporting its allies, deterring a bigger country from being able to encroach on their smaller neighbors.
Finally, Professor Grabowski speculated that Russia is losing its grip on Central Asia, and the balance of power between Russia andChina is shifting rapidly towards the latter, therefore, China’s position will be very influential in days to come.
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