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Fitch downgrades 2022 and 2023 growth forecasts for Poland

Fitch expects Poland's inflation to hit around 20 percent at the beginning of 2023 and to start falling later next year.
Andrew Gombert/PAP/EPA

The Fitch ratings agency has revised down Poland’s GDP growth forecasts for both 2022 and 2023, to 3.9 percent from its previous estimate of 5.2 percent for this year and to 1.5 percent for next year from the level of 3.0 percent, the agency has indicated in a report.

Fitch wrote that Poland’s economy was likely to enter a technical recession in the third quarter of 2022 and stagnation in the fourth quarter.

According to Fitch, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council will likely end the cycle of interest rate hikes when the reference rate reaches 7.50 percent and will start decreasing them by 50 percentage points by the end of 2023.

Fitch expects Poland’s inflation to hit around 20 percent at the beginning of 2023 and to start falling later next year.

According to Fitch and S&P Global Ratings, Poland’s rating is ‘A-,’ and according to Moody’s it is ‘A2.’ All three give Poland a “stable” outlook.


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