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Fitch upgrades 2022 growth forecast for Poland

Andrew Gombert/PAP/EPA

The Fitch ratings agency revised up Poland’s GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.2 percent from its previous estimate of 3.3 percent, the agency has said in a report.

“A higher starting point means that growth this year is likely to be 5.2 percent (3.3 percent before) despite the expected slowing of the economy in the coming quarters,” Fitch said.

The agency added that the forecast takes into account the inflow of funds to Poland from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

At the same time, Fitch predicts the Polish economy will grow 3.0 percent in 2023, below its previous forecast of 3.3 percent and will slow down to 2.3 percent in 2024.

According to the agency, real income will go down along with accelerating inflation, tighter monetary policy, trade disruptions and growing economic uncertainty.

The inflationary situation will force the National Bank of Poland to continue tightening its policy, Fitch said. The agency expects the central bank’s reference interest rate to be at 7.0 percent at the end of this year and at 6.5 percent next year with inflation at 11.0 and 7.5 percent, respectively.

Fitch also highlighted the good situation on the Polish labour market and an increase in domestic consumption due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine as well as a strong wage hike (12 percent in March).


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