Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push Poland’s 2022 average inflation figure up to 10.8 percent, according to analysts at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).

“The war has caused our inflation forecast to rise by 3.5 percentage points,” Jakub Rybacki, director of PIE’s macroeconomics team, was quoted in a press release as saying.

“Food and energy prices are rising the most. Apart from disrupted supply chains of food products, limitations to fertiliser exports caused by sanctions have to be taken into account. These reduce availability and raise the costs of the foods produced. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine also affects the expected interest-rate growth in Poland.

“As a country neighbouring a territory affected by war, we can expect a worsening of the Polish public debt structure and an increase in the cost of its servicing,” Rybacki continued. “This means an increased issuance of short-term bonds as well as a higher profitability of Polish treasury bonds.”