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Russian troops must be used or withdrawn within days: British report

According to military experts quoted by the British daily “The Guardian”, Russian forces massed near the borders of Ukraine can remain in position only for a few more days. Otherwise, they are in danger of significantly weakening their combat capabilities.

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This means that Russian President Vladimir Putin must decide in the near future whether to use them for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine or send them back to their permanent bases, in southern or western Russia, tens or even hundreds of kilometers further from the border.

“The Guardian” stressed that such forward positions, often poorly protected from the cold, can only be maintained for a short time. Meanwhile, social media is filled with evidence of just how bad the conditions are for soldiers near the border.

The newspaper cites social media posts and photos spotted by military analyst Rob Lee, which show approximately 100 soldiers crowded at the Dolbino train station about 20 km from the Ukrainian border, without rations, forced to buy food on their own.

Russian soldiers stationed in Belarus, in the forests near the village of Khoiniki, 50 km from the Ukrainian border, were described by a local resident a few days ago as people who “drink a lot and sell diesel a lot.” That suggests a lack of discipline despite heightened political tensions.

Images show new deployment of military vehicles in Belarus -Maxar https://t.co/O5qPNYAiM4 pic.twitter.com/8SaEe8Ucco

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 23, 2022

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Russian troops ready for action

Western intelligence estimates that roughly a third of all Russian forces are now “tactically deployed” in frontline positions and are “ready for action”. Their movements have been closely monitored for several weeks using aerial reconnaissance and other methods as they approach the border.

On Monday, a senior official said he believed Russia was capable of keeping them in advanced positions for “several days,” a conclusion supported by independent experts.

Nick Reynolds, a ground war analyst at London-based think tank called the “Royal United Services Institute” (RUSI), said: “If troops are going to be used, they are likely to be used very quickly while they are as fresh as possible.” He agreed with the assessment that if they were to be effective, commanders would want to begin operations within days.

“The Guardian” notes that it is still possible that Russia will withdraw troops from the border to bases, as it did last spring; leaving them ready to escalate at short notice after resupply. Regardless of these circumstances, military pressure means that the coming days could prove crucial.

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