After a period of robust growth, Poland’s economy may lose some of its momentum in the near future, an expert has said.
Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium, was speaking after Poland’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit a 23-month low of 50.5 points in September, according to Markit, a provider of financial information services.
Analysts had expected a reading of 51.5 points.
Poland’s PMI stood at 55 points in December, according to Markit.
Maliszewski told public broadcaster Polish Radio’s IAR news agency that sentiment in industry was worse than expected and that the September reading was the lowest in nearly two years. But this does not mean that Polish industry is entering a period of recession, he said, though it is necessary to be prepared for a situation in which both production and the economy as a whole will be growing at a slower rate.
A neutral PMI rating of 50 means that businesspeople in the country feel that the economy will not change over the coming month.
A higher rating means that it is expected to improve, while a PMI rating below 50 indicates that many think it will deteriorate.
Markit said in a comment on Monday that the Polish manufacturing sector was “close to being stagnant” in September.
It added that the rate at which the overall economic conditions improved in Poland’s manufacturing sector was the slowest in almost two years, and the number of new orders shrank for the first time since October 2016.
The Polish economy grew 5.1 percent in the second quarter of this year and 5.2 percent in the first quarter, according to the country’s Central Statistical Office (GUS).
Poland’s economy grew 4.9 percent in the final quarter of last year and expanded by 4.6 percent in 2017 as a whole.
Poland’s finance minister said in mid-August that the country’s economic growth could slow to around 4.5 percent in the second half of this year, and to below 4 percent in 2019.
According to a June report by the World Bank, Polish economic growth is likely to slow to about 3.0 percent over the medium term.
The country’s conservative prime minister said in August that Poland’s economy was on a path of sustainable growth and increasingly being driven by investment.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki reiterated last month that economic growth in Poland was “solid, good and sustainable.”